Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?

Faisal Rachman

Abstract

This article investigates whether following Bank Indonesia’s explicit inflation targets (forward-looking) is a more accurate method of predicting inflation rate in Indonesia than forecast methods utilizing past information of macroeconomic data (backward-looking). The analysis is conducted by performing naive, univariate, and multivariate time-series models with an out-of-sample forecast evaluation period of January 2014–December 2016. It is found that the backward-looking approach outperforms the forward-looking approach at all forecast horizons, indicating that Bank Indonesia still does not succeed to anchor inflation expectation towards the desired level.

Abstrak

Artikel ini mencoba untuk meneliti apakah mengikuti target inflasi yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesia (forward-looking) adalah metode yang lebih akurat untuk memprediksi tingkat inflasi suatu periode tertentu di Indonesia ketimbang metode peramalan inflasi dengan menggunakan data informasi makroekonomi lampau (backward-looking). Analisa dilakukan dengan membandingkan model runtun waktu naif, satu peubah, dan peubah ganda dengan periode Januari 2014–Desember 2016 digunakan sebagai periode evaluasi sampel peramalan. Tulisan ini menyimpulkan bahwa performa peramalan metode backward-looking lebih unggul dari pada metode forward-looking untuk setiap jangka waktu peramalan yang mengindikasikan bahwa Bank Indonesia masih belum berhasil dalam mengendalikan ekspektasi publik terhadap inflasi ketingkat yang diinginkan.
Kata kunci: Inflasi; Forward-Looking; Backward-Looking; ARMA; VAR

JEL classifications: C22; C32; E31; E37; E52

Keywords

Inflation; Forward-Looking; Backward-Looking; ARMA; VAR

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References

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